Whether it’s walking the dog or the morning commute — an up-to-date and accurate weather forecast can mean the difference between a pleasant stroll under an umbrella or getting soaked through to the bone.
Current weather forecasts are based on traditional weather prediction (NWP) models which use complicated mathematical algorithms representing physical atmospheric principles to predict how weather changes over time. A variety of real-time meteorological observations are generated from ground sensors, weather radars and satellites monitoring land masses, oceans and the upper atmosphere. Variables such as humidity, temperature, wind direction and speed, etc. are fed into the models to produce daily and long range forecasts for as far as two weeks ahead on regional, national and global scales.
Such traditional methods however can struggle when it comes to short-term, small-scale precipitation forecasting, due to incomplete observation data, imperfect modeling or insufficient atmospheric understanding.
To provide accurate precipitation nowcasting, Beijing startup ColorfulClouds Tech is applying machine learning (ML) techniques using observed radar echo maps to generate high resolution, minute-by-minute rainfall forecasts on its ColorfulClouds Weather mobile app.
ColorfulClouds has built up an end-to-end model which intakes authoritative radar map data from the China NMIC (National Meteorological Information Center) and the US NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to complete forecasts through machine learning powered technical processes of segmentation and prediction.
Segmentation filters and removes false echoes from non-precipitation objects such as buildings, hills, birds and aircraft that may appear in the radar reflectivity images. Model training is based on U-Net and SegNet. Segmented images are then processed with deep neural networks to create time-specific fuzzy prediction and output future radar maps.
The company uses a self-developed tool for data labeling. In China, this data covers maps from over 200 radar sites for different seasons, latitudes and terrains to ensure a high quality dataset for model training.
ColorfulClouds says its latest ML models’ weather forecast accuracy for the next six hours is comparable with that of traditional weather prediction models.
The ColorfulClouds Weather app is designed to supplement traditional weather forecast methods, allowing users to stay informed on local weather conditions such as temperature, pressure and wind; while also providing additional public awareness information (e.g. smog). Air pollutant concentrations and air quality index (AQI) data is currently available in Asia and North America.
Along with precipitation nowcasting, ColorfulClouds is also considering applying ML to other aspects of weather forecasting, such as expanding accurate short-term precipitation predictions into long-term precipitation forecasts.
Machine Learning is not new to the field of weather forecasting. Meteorologists and researchers are continuously developing and improving data assimilation and forecasting algorithms and updating related parameters. Common ML applications in contemporary weather forecasting include tropical cyclone intensity prediction and severe convective weather forecasts.
ColorfulClouds believes ML is also applicable in NWP models where fuzzy estimation is required, for data interpolation based on observation, coefficients estimation, data assimilation, etc. There remains however a talent shortage, as very few professionals in the field have comprehensive understanding of meteorological models.
Inspired by the NeurIPS 2018 best paper Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, a ColorfulClouds long-term aim is to develop deep neural networks that allow backpropagation for the set of equations used in weather forecasting. Discovering an ML approach that surpasses tried-and-tested, 40-year-old NWP models will be both challenging and rewarding.
This article is based on a Synced interview with ColorfulClouds Algorithm Team Director Pengqiu Xu. Founded in 2014, ColorfulClouds provides weather forecasting and translation services.
Source: Synced China
Localization: Tingting Cao | Editor: Michael Sarazen
In normal poker game, you’re playing whoever’s sitting round that table.
Once in the online market place there are hundreds of casinos it is possible to
choose by way of. But there’s no denying you’re right ’bout one consideration. http://Www.Directoryoftheturf.com/externalsite.cfm?id=14582&webaddress=//kslot.app
At Scr188, buyer satisfaction is the goal, so in the
event you ever have any issues, be at liberty to contact
us at any time. If you need help, don’t hesitate to Contact
Our 24/7 Customer support or Register Proper Now. Online
gambling is the most effective with secure bankin and nice buyer help service.
As for you beginners on the market, we provide great ways to maximise your expertise and your dollar.
The imitator -NoxPlayer can give you the possibility to play in your laptop
computer or Computer, and it prices nothing. Nearly all of online
slot casinos can provide increased payout percentages than conventional land casinos because they don’t have the identical high overhead operational costs.
Better and really in your favor compared to land primarily
based and offline video games. Before you introduce one thing to take a stab at counseling the skilled to grasp
the necessities and uses higher. Lambert supplies emotional properly-being situations
and additionally an important “entrenched on line casino dependency” although skilled
presupposed to pay the funds by way of web gambling establishment options, a Florida Location Courtroom
seen. 4. Once you acquired the confirmation from the Live Chat group, you’re formally a
member of On-line On line casino. Guardians are increasingly anxious about what games the youngsters are playing as a substitute of agonizing over why in any
respect they are messing round. So why do you have to play slots on-line, compared to conventional
gaming on casino floors? Why are you downloading 918Kiss
Slot Casino? As an alternative of considering which number the ball will fall on,
why not think the other manner around and do not bet on 1 explicit number?